Forecasting marketplace penetration is an crucial step in the use and assessment of new technologies. This report reviews individual methodologies that are on tap for market penetration forecasting. The primary objective of this news report is to help entrepreneurs empathise these methodologies and aid in the choice of one or more of them for application to a particular new technology.
Recent yesteryear is occupied with stories of companies and sometimes even whole industries that have ready-made grave strategic errors because of inaccurate industrywide demand forecasts. Such forecasts are crucial […] " The unfaithful suppositions did not stem from a deficiency of prediction techniques; abnormality analysis, historical discernment smoothing, and others were in stock to all the players. electric utilities made plans to multiple generating capacity by the mid-1980s based on forecasts of a 7% annual evolution in demand. Instead, they shared a false fundamental assumption: that relationships driving demand in the foregone would proceed unaltered.
Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison - ScienceDirect
The primary objective of this newspaper is to compare the prognostication operation of the increasingly wide parcel of land of growth delivery models. 17 models are used to forecast the development of telecommunications markets, drawn by 25 period series describing telephone ability in 15 distinguishable countries. Forecasting performance is measured by root nasty square error and mean undiluted percentage error over the senior 10 or 11 years of the series, the model parameters having been fitted o'er the previous 20 years.